000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241539
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Vance is centered near 12.9N 103.0W, or about 300 nm 
SW of Acapulco, Mexico at 24/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at
5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas 
are near 35 ft or 11 m. satellite imagery shows that the 
appearance of Vance has deteriorated a bit during the past few 
hours, likely due to the combined effects of colder sea surface 
temperatures near the center and increasing southwesterly shear.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the 
center in the NE quadrant, within 90 nm of the center in the SE 
quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 
within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Vance is forecast
to maintain a slow motion toward the north-northwest through the
weekend. Gradual weakening is expected through Sun. Some re- 
intensification will be possible beginning Sun night, or on Mon. 
Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of 
southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into 
next week. The swell is likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting 
minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas as were confirmed by 
overnight satellite scatterometer data.  Winds will continue to 
pulse through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient 
remaining in place, possibly diminishing briefly during afternoon
hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from NW Colombia to across
southern Panama, and continues to 08N82W to 07N85W and to
09N94W. It resumes to the SW of Vance at 07N112W to 05N120W to 
05N132W and to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 01N to 07N between 85W and 94W, and within 180
nm north of the trough between 130W-135W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 80W-85W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh
winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending 
southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas.
Gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the 
waters, with slight seas are over the Gulf of California, and 
moderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance 
and the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W
this evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to
near 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt 
gusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to
re-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with 
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W
Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, 
then begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning
with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is forecast
to move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum sustained
winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse
to gale-force likely through Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
as a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, then pulsing to
fresh to strong through at least the middle of next week. Moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds offshore Baja California will 
linger early this morning before diminishing. Rough seas in 
northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will briefly 
spread across those waters today, subsiding tonight. Moderate or 
weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away
from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight 
seas in the Gulf of California.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are 
over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas
prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except for 
slight seas near the coast of Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo
region. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh 
winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands 
through today. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane 
Vance.

Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and moderate 
to rough seas in a northerly swell are from 10N to 20N and west 
of about 123W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker along 
with moderate seas away from Vance.

For the forecast, Hurricane Vance will move to near 13.6N 103.3W
this evening with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to
near 14.6N 103.6W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 80 kt
gusts to 100 kt, to near 15.5N 104.0W Sun evening, then begin to
re-intensify as it moves to near 16.0N 104.3W Mon morning with 
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 16.3N 104.4W
Mon evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, 
then begin to weaken as it moves to near 16.7N 104.4W Tue morning
with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Vance is 
forecast to move to near 17.7N 104.5W early on Wed with maximum 
sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds
will diminish, and rough seas will subside over the west- 
central waters during the morning. North swell producing rough 
seas have begun to propagate to the south of 30N over the north- 
central waters. However, they are forecast to subside tonight. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the
discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late
in the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, a new 
set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south- 
central waters by the middle of next week building seas to a 
rough state over the waters south of about 06N between 108W and 
128W by late Wed night.

$$
Aguirre