Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071019
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jul 07 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A recently introduced far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its 
axis along 25W south of 14N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
No significant convection is noted near the wave axis, only an 
isolated shower near 09N26W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W south of 18N, 
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is east of the wave from 05N to 10N between 
40W and 46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west 
of the wave from 07N to 10N. This wave is expected to be attendant 
by tight gradient producing fresh to strong winds and building 
seas to 8 ft starting this afternoon as it quickly tracks 
westward toward 50W.

Another central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 
18N57.5W to inland South America at 08N59W. It is moving westward 
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
observed from 02N to 13N and between 51W and 57W.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N, 
moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is near the 
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N35W to 08N45W to 08N60W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is southeast of
the trough from 06N to 10N between 18W-23W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 36W-40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure extends westward across the basin 
from the Atlantic as a weak 1018 mb high is over eastern Mexico. 
The related pressure gradient is generally maintaining gentle to 
moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, 
and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N. 
Latest satellite altimeter and buoy observations indicate slight 
seas throughout.

satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms south 
of 22N between 91W and 97W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure will change little 
through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf 
coast Fri through Sat night. The related pressure gradient will 
continue to maintain gentle to moderate winds east to southeast 
winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle 
southeast to south winds north of about 26N, except for fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at 
night. Slight seas are forecast throughout the basin for the 
forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and 
relatively lower pressures in Colombia is supporting fresh to 
strong trades across the central Caribbean as seen in the latest 
satellite scatterometer data passes. Trades to near gale-force are 
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas are
being produced by these trades. The scatterometer satellite data 
passes also reveal moderate to fresh trades across the eastern 
portion of the basin. Seas are of moderate state with these 
trades. Trades of fresh speeds are in the Gulf Honduras, where 
seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds along 
with slight to moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and relatively lower pressures in Colombia will continue 
to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean 
through the period, while mostly fresh trades will be elsewhere 
south of 18N. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. 
Expect winds to pulse to near-gale force at night offshore of 
Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Sat, except on Thu. 
Moderate or weaker winds will continue over the northwestern part 
of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong
east to southeast winds are forecast at night through the 
forecast period. A tropical wave currently extending along 59W 
south of 18N will move across the eastern Caribbean Wed and Wed 
night, across the central Caribbean Thu through Fri night, and 
across the eastern part of the western Caribbean Sat and Sat 
night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to 
accompany this wave. Another tropical wave will move across the 
basin starting Wed night attendant by fresh to strong winds. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure over the basin is the main feature 
controlling the general wind flow pattern. One high center of 1023
mb is centered near 20N62W, and a 1026 mb high center is to the 
northeast at 29N38.5W. A weak trough extends from near 31N55W to
26N59W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the trough 
from 25N to 29N between 52W and 55W. To the northeast of the trough, 
an area of numerous moderate convection is located from 28N to 31N 
between 42W and 48W. An upper shortwave trough is sustaining this 
activity. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are south of about 24N 
and west of 30W, and where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Strong east winds are 
between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas. Moderate to locally 
strong north to northeast winds are from 18N to 28N and east of 30W 
to along the coast of Africa. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds 
per a recent altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate or weaker winds 
along with mostly moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure over the area 
will change little through the forecast period. The associated 
gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south 
of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds along
with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of 
Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through 
Sat night.

$$
Aguirre