Hurricane Lowell

463 
WTPA44 PHFO 020852
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Lowell is a well-organized, compact 
hurricane that has continued to intensify since the last advisory.  
The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, between a blend of the 
various subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from 118-137 kt. 
Lowell has undergone an impressive 65-kt very rapid intensification 
during the last 24 hours, and it should remain in generally 
conducive large-scale conditions of warm water and light shear for 
the next several days. The storm could even make category 5 
intensity on Wednesday before a series of eyewall replacement 
cycles likely commence by Thursday.  The intensity forecast is 
raised in the short term, but otherwise is similar to the previous 
one, on the higher side of the guidance envelope.  There is a high 
likelihood that Lowell will remain a powerful hurricane for days to 
come, with the intensity governed largely by internal dynamics 
(like eyewall replacements).

The initial motion is westward at 10 kt. A westward motion is 
anticipated during the next several days due to a mid-level ridge 
over the Central Pacific.   By Sunday, an upper-level trough is 
expected to weaken the ridge, causing Lowell to slow down and take a 
more northward turn, though there is considerable uncertainty on 
how sharp that turn might be.  Similar to the last advisory, the 
official track forecast is nudged slightly southward, near the HCCA 
and GDMI track aids. 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 13.5N 152.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 13.6N 153.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 13.9N 157.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 14.0N 159.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 160.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.0N 161.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 14.3N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 15.6N 164.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake